Obesity prevalence among US adults climbed from 30% to 41% between 1999 and 2023, with severe obesity doubling from 5% to 10% and abdominal obesity rising from 48% to 61%, according to a new data brief published in Circulation. The findings, drawn from more than two decades of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data, represent what investigators describe as the most contemporary evaluation of obesity trends among US adults and youth to date.
Among youth, investigators observed an approximate 30% relative increase in overall obesity, a 50% increase in severe obesity, and a three-fold increase in abdominal obesity comparing 1999 with 2023. By the end of the study period, roughly 20% of youth met criteria for obesity.
Related: User Blocked After Repeated Policy Violations
Adults aged 40 to 59 years carried the highest prevalence of overall obesity. Sex-based disparities were pronounced. As of 2023, women had higher rates of severe obesity (13%) and abdominal obesity (70%) than men (7% and 51%, respectively), with hormonal differences and changes across the lifespan potentially contributing to this gap. Non-Hispanic Black individuals consistently demonstrated the highest prevalence of all obesity measures compared with other demographic groups throughout the study period.
The distinction between these findings and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention matters for interpretation. The CDC most recent National Center for Health Statistics data brief reported an age-adjusted adult obesity prevalence of 40.3% during August 2021 to August 2023 and found that adult obesity prevalence did not change significantly over the preceding 10 years. This was observed even as severe obesity rose from 7.7% to 9.7%. The Circulation estimates diverge somewhat from the CDC’s most recent National Center for Health Statistics data brief, which reported an age-adjusted adult obesity prevalence of 40.3% during August 2021 to August 2023 and found that adult obesity prevalence did not change significantly over the preceding 10 years.
This long-term upward trajectory is clear, yet the recent decade may reflect a plateau in overall prevalence alongside continued growth in the most severe phenotypes. It is worth noting that the first-ever guideline on cardio-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome, released weeks before this study, positions obesity as stage 1 of the CKM continuum and emphasizes diet and lifestyle modification as foundational to long-term health. Nearly 90% of US adults have at least one CKM risk factor.
Related: Cosmetic jars: no shortage of choice
Pharmacists are increasingly positioned to catch these trends early. Waist circumference captures cardiometabolic risk independent of BMI, and the near three-fold increase among youth suggests risk accumulating well before conventional screening thresholds are triggered. Pharmacists who conduct point-of-care health screenings, medication therapy management encounters, or glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist consultations are positioned to reinforce that BMI alone may understate risk.
“Pharmacists can encourage healthy lifestyle behaviors, including adequate physical activity; following a healthy diet; achieving and maintaining a normal weight; sle